It’s sitting at ~29 forward/trailing p/e which means that it’s likely to drop 30% if there’s a correction and even more if there’s a broader economic thing going on that causes ad spend to go down.

That's still less than a lot of other tech companies. And "15 is the natural long-run P/E" is just a rule of thumb, not some kind of iron law.

Something under-appreciated: If you pretend a company is paying out 100% of profits as dividends (which it theoretically potentially could, and is useful as a financial modelling tool), then the inverse of P/E, E/P, is an interest rate on the price of the stock.

Ideal P/Es thus shouldn't be flat, they should be tracking long-term bond rates. This isn't an empirical observation, just a theoretical one of what "ideal" should be. But one should rationally expect P/Es to go up when interest rates drop.

It is disappointing to me that even Shiller doesn't really consider this much.

leading labs are going to be tightening the screws. Otherwise why not just run the entire company on a public cloud?

It's giving "OpenAI says its new model GPT-2 is too dangerous to release (2019)"

[because it would start an arms race]. The very arms race we're in... They were right

easier to implement and understand

That's not exactly true, they expanded the free tier from 1 to 100GB/mo (1TB/mo out of CloudFront) and dropped egress from ~20c/GB to ~9c/GB. This was due to pressure from the Bandwidth Alliance formed by all the other Clouds and spearheaded by Cloudflare.

~20c/GB to ~9c/GB was the 2006-2026 halving I mentioned. Two decades to drop by half.

Accounting for inflation that's more like dropped by 75%. As AWS position as market leader erodes we'll likely see further drops.

And it costs them nothing, because they have free peering agreements with every network.

But it's true? How does an automaker that doesn't engage in those tactics compete when the rest of the market does?

Like sugar-free, gluten-free, dairy-free, nut-free food, where the lack of something is sold as something positive.

I'd love to buy an ad-free, subscription-free, tracking-free, touchscreen-free car.

Those cars exist but don’t do well in the market. And only when sold by very little money and cheap parts.

People demand connectivity, big screens and lots of software.

In the future, no one will be rich enough to buy a free car

is that a sustained 20TW? Absolutely crazy that we're generating 60kwh per person daily. Where does it all go?

Lots of it is lost to heat with legacy fossil generation.

You have pretty much the same heat losses with nuclear, or anything else where you heat water to turn a turbine.

Nuclear is low carbon, it’s fine we lose heat to extract that energy versus stationary and mobile combustion generation, as there is no other effective way to extract that energy at this time.

Quantification of global waste heat and its environmental effects - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03062... - Applied Energy Volume 235, 1 February 2019, Pages 1314-1334

* 49.3–51.5% of global energy use would end up as waste heat in 2030.

* Transport sector accounts for the largest (43%) recoverable waste heat in 2030.

I made no claims about carbon.

A lot of endpoint protection products rely on SNI sniffing. E.g. Apple's network extensions filters look at TLS handshakes.

Then they would drop the connection with esni

One thing that's happening is that attestation is being plumbed into the web itself. CloudFlare and Apple have a collab where Safari will inject tokens that let CF know that the request is coming from a blessed device. In a world where all websites are being crushed by bot traffic, expect that Goog pushes on their own integrity initiative in Chrome in the next year or two.

apparently you can use asbestos and they have been and will continue until 2030-ish. It's now in the wild in all kinds of unexpected places.

Yeah, I don't think that is generally viewed as a good thing, though? And I would not be surprised to learn California has some stricter rules on it. (Would honestly not be surprised to find out some of these "banned" items are due to asbestos level concerns.)