One of my favourite (dutch) children’s books is “400 degrees in the shade” which explores exactly that. A human colony sticking to the terminator. (It’s quite dystopian though)
It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss)
The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.
The biggest winner is China. Countries/people who have any common sense will switch to solar, induction stoves (replacing LPG/LNG), batteries, electric vehicles (of all kinds). China is the only supplier of solar, batteries, EVs and all things electric with everyone else being a rounding error.
But that's what has changed. Even short term solar is becoming the obvious solution. Look at countries like Pakistan and their solar hyper growth.
Everybody thought it has to be western countries (mostly europe) switching to solar first. But west might actually be last to get off fossil because they can afford it and populist politics will force fossil. It's like burning fossil for nostalgia.
Ya, look at what happened in Nepal, poor access to oil via India, who imports it themselves, but lots of hydro potential. China being next door with an actual rail and truck connection, and cheap EVs.
The developing world has the potential to achieve developed living standards for a much cheaper price, while the west rots away catering to vested interests.
Russia has banned the export of gasoline starting April 1st, because hits on infrastructure by Ukraine are causing internal shortages. They may be profiting in some other way but it’s unlikely through major exports.
Over the past few months their oil facilities have been heavily attacked. It’s hard to believe they’re actually making a big profit from this in the short term.
The US isn’t winning. The owners of us oil companies may have won a little. Commodity gamblers won a lot by knowing what Trump would say and betting before he said it.
The US government and population have lost a lot of wealth.
Btw: if you are interested in this, note that it often isn’t clear cut where a company is from.
For example: https://european-alternatives.eu/product/zitadel bills itself as a swiss company, and it might technically be one, but it looks very much like a general SF startup to me (business address in sf, all investors are US based)
Zitadel started in Switzerland under the name CAOS AG and has still a lot of its operations in Europe. For our US go to market strategy we incorporated Zitadel Inc. which operates out of SF where I also tend to be.
The matter is definitely more complex than yes and no... my general stand has been that jurisdiction matters a lot when you store and process data from customers, like many cloud services do. iIt matters less if you can take a software and self-host it.
Great point, including the CEO reply. I know it's not simple/easy/binary, which is why having a starting list is incredibly helpful! I also search around a lot in other lists, like awesome privacy [1] and awesome self-hosted [2].
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