Even if it's "just" a text predictor, it already outperforms the average person in certain domains, particularly software engineering. With all the recent advances in agentic systems like Claude Code and OpenCLAW, these text predictors can iterate and debug faster than the average human. Looking ahead at the next decade, I totally agree with Sean's view here.
> I'm a daily user of the most recent Claude and while it's amazing at presenting other people's knowledge and reducing cognitive load.
'Presenting other people's knowledge' is enough to get the job done when that knowledge encompasses the entire internet.
These are strong claims and I would want to see equally strong evidence for them.
My experience is that it's really darn good at producing text, but it's not a logic engine - it's not designed to be one and even the most recent versions make mistakes which indicate it's not actually thinking.
> I'm a daily user of the most recent Claude and while it's amazing at presenting other people's knowledge and reducing cognitive load.
'Presenting other people's knowledge' is enough to get the job done when that knowledge encompasses the entire internet.