Yea, GCC style optimizations don't work until your company hit the 150-200 headcount mark.
But it is those sized organizations that tend to represent the majority of hiring.
A company with 100 or fewer employees tends to be much more hard pressed with hiring, as revenue for these sized orgs also tends to be lower.
The Section 174 changes didn't have much of an impact one way or the other for larger companies and organizations.
The expectation for output has largely been set now, and even with the current changes I don't see much of an impact on hiring trends.
This also doesn't include the impact that AI productivity tools like Cursor is starting to have on AoPs. It's already the halfway point and I myself am starting to see increased proposals from Engineering leadership to leverage Cursor style tooling wherever possible. And a number of the seed and Series A companies I've funded over the past 2-3 years have largely kept headcount below 100 and heavily utilizing automation where possible, and are on track to hit Series B style FCF metrics with a much leaner workflow.
Section 174 changes absolutely have an impact on all sizes of orgs. It’s been a major downward pressure for the last several years on the US market, and causing a major outsourcing push. It’s likely to do the opposite now.
That said, larger orgs can weather it better - but it’s a fundamental change.
And my point is that the outward trend for offshoring (along with the increased feasibility of AI Productivity tools) has been occuring irrespective of the Section 174 change, and this assumption that it's change will suddenly restart hiring just isn't going to pan out.
This is increasingly the norm - for example, entire product lines in GCP are owned by their Warsaw and Bangalore office (especially K8s side).