It's true, it was a bit hyperbole. No civilian really knows what's up. Should have stated it accordingly. It's the apparent observer's consensus.
Yet, the Russian cut-off from Starlink was incredibly notable, organizationally and the recovered FP-1/FP-2 drones featured Starlink terminals, so no use denying that.
Ukraine certainly didn't build 3G/4G in occupied territory. Consider the radio horizon for a 50m tower. In proximity to targets, it absolutely can be jammed, and Russia is very capable of doing so. We see none of that in those deep strikes. Those drones seem to be completely resistant to EW, which implies a connection from above (can only be effectively jammed from above AFAIK). The latency seems notable, but stable.
Now, of course, Starlink alone wouldn't have defeated AD by itself, magically. That's mostly good strategy and intel. However, Starlink made those FP-1/FP-2 deep strikes way more effective and simple (compared to using relays and mesh networking, hoping EW hasn't caught up). Starlink allows to have stable video feeds until impact. No need for autonomy, radio tracking, terrain mapping... just a reusable pilot and a cheap drone. That's huge and a significant tech advantage. If Russia had this (and the intel) for their overwhelming numbers of Geran drones, Ukraine would be in a very bad situation, I think.
Apart from that, Starlink was also instrumental in exfiltrating information about the Iranian protests. It's just a jamming/censorship resistant technology evidently effective against most competent adversaries.
That said, due to the importance of Starlink, I think escalation to/focus on orbit denial attacks seems likely, for any nation which can't afford their own LEO sat network, or existentially utilizes censorship/information control. Especially since (low) LEO debris will deorbit rather timely, it's not exactly a permanent damage to human space flight. Therefore Starlink's military success may be self-limiting and temporal, since the satellites themself are not at all immune to asymmetric attacks.
Yet, the Russian cut-off from Starlink was incredibly notable, organizationally and the recovered FP-1/FP-2 drones featured Starlink terminals, so no use denying that.
Ukraine certainly didn't build 3G/4G in occupied territory. Consider the radio horizon for a 50m tower. In proximity to targets, it absolutely can be jammed, and Russia is very capable of doing so. We see none of that in those deep strikes. Those drones seem to be completely resistant to EW, which implies a connection from above (can only be effectively jammed from above AFAIK). The latency seems notable, but stable.
Now, of course, Starlink alone wouldn't have defeated AD by itself, magically. That's mostly good strategy and intel. However, Starlink made those FP-1/FP-2 deep strikes way more effective and simple (compared to using relays and mesh networking, hoping EW hasn't caught up). Starlink allows to have stable video feeds until impact. No need for autonomy, radio tracking, terrain mapping... just a reusable pilot and a cheap drone. That's huge and a significant tech advantage. If Russia had this (and the intel) for their overwhelming numbers of Geran drones, Ukraine would be in a very bad situation, I think.
Apart from that, Starlink was also instrumental in exfiltrating information about the Iranian protests. It's just a jamming/censorship resistant technology evidently effective against most competent adversaries.
That said, due to the importance of Starlink, I think escalation to/focus on orbit denial attacks seems likely, for any nation which can't afford their own LEO sat network, or existentially utilizes censorship/information control. Especially since (low) LEO debris will deorbit rather timely, it's not exactly a permanent damage to human space flight. Therefore Starlink's military success may be self-limiting and temporal, since the satellites themself are not at all immune to asymmetric attacks.